Home North pole ice Cold with chance of snow ahead – The Morning Sun

Cold with chance of snow ahead – The Morning Sun

0

This could be a good week to enjoy some tea or hot chocolate as last week’s above average temperature pattern shifts to below average this week. The highs through mid-week are expected to be fairly consistent day-to-day, only hitting the mid-30s Monday through Thursday. For reference, average temperatures at this time of year are in the mid-40s. Temperatures aren’t the only wintry feature in this week’s forecast, with some chance of snow showers expected this week as well. The greatest chance of snow for the first half of the week appears to be Tuesday night through Wednesday, although the models don’t match exactly where the snow is expected to be in the region.

At the high end, our area of ​​the state appears to see up to 1-2 inches of snowfall between Tuesday and Thursday. However, uncertainty regarding the exact placement of snow this far into the forecast period and warm ground temperatures may keep grassy areas green well into the middle of the week. With overnight lows dropping below freezing and possibly into the upper 20s throughout this week, our ground temperatures may soon tell a different story. With when any snowfall can begin during the evening commute Tuesday through the rest of the week, even during light accumulations, remember to “drive slowly through ice and snow” as it could end up to be the first real measurable snow of the season here in our area. Tuesday night appears to have the strongest mid-week winds, with gusts of up to 20 MPH possible. From Thursday night through Friday, this cool trend continues to make its presence known as a cold front passes through our region, bringing our temperatures down further. The chance of lake effect snow continues this weekend with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens currently favored.

The cold continues beyond the 7 days

It’s been hot for a while this fall with lots of 60s and 70s throughout the first third of November. That pattern has now changed and temperatures appear to be well below normal this weekend and at least early in the week leading up to Thanksgiving. Computer model data is cold, but it continues to trend even colder with each passing day. This idea has since made because it fits well with the negative EPO pattern being off the charts and the position of the polar vortex located on our side of the globe.

Given these anomalies, this points to highs in the 20s this weekend and in the days leading up to Thanksgiving. Lows would be in the teens, if not in the single digits, if conditions turn good on a smaller scale. Plenty of snow chances are also on the table, though details on specifics and quantities are still unclear until we get closer to a possible accumulated snow event. Ultimately, the large-scale synoptic pattern supports temperatures well below normal, which means cold and, therefore, snow for this time of year.

What is an -EPO pattern, you ask? Well, simply put, a negative EPO pattern refers to ongoing ridge formation over Alaska leading to bottoming across much of the United States. This means warmer than normal temperatures in Alaska and colder than normal temperatures in much of the United States. As you can see in the image above, blue and purple colors cover most of the United States, indicating below normal temperatures. Dark purple over the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest shows well below normal temperatures of 15 to 20+ degrees. For reference, our normal mid-November highs are in the mid 40s here in central MI, which is why highs may only be in the 20s this weekend and potentially early in the next week as well.

And the polar vortex? It is a true meteorological term that refers to the cold Arctic air that usually stays near the Arctic. However, it is possible that it moves and shifts to lower latitudes, rather than staying only at the north pole. When that happens, it’s easier for the Jetstream to tap into the bitter cold air and pull it even further south into the mid-latitudes, where the United States is. As the cold air is carried from the North Pole into the United States, it changes and isn’t as cold as it was when it left the Arctic, so we don’t know not exactly what it was at the north pole, but it is still a source of very cold air that we can tap into and bring south into the United States when the synoptic pattern becomes favorable to do so. Combine this arctic air source with the negative EPO model discussed earlier and you end up with a very cold weather forecast.

Winter weather watches, warnings and advisories

We hear them frequently…watches, warnings and advisories. But what do they mean? What is the difference between a winter weather advisory and a winter storm warning? And a watch? Let’s discuss it here:

First, we are going to discuss the meaning of a “WATCH”. Whenever a weather alert is labeled as a “watch”, whether it is a severe thunderstorm watch, winter storm watch, or some other form of “watch”, it means that the weather conditions discussed are possible. The specifics have yet to be ironed out specifically, but there is a threat of severe impacts based on what the forecast shows, so this “watch” provides an early warning that something may be happening and you are encouraged to check more later forecast as further details become available.

Second, we will talk about both “NOTICE” and “WARNING”. Indeed, these two terms are used to indicate that the danger in question is ANTICIPATED. The only difference is that the warning has more impact than the notice. Typically, during an advisory, weather conditions make daily routines, such as driving to work, more inconvenient than normal. You will probably need more time to reach your destination. You will probably still be able to do what you want to do, but it will take longer. In some cases, the inconvenience may force you to change your plans. Also, during a warning, conditions will be so badly affected that plans will have to be changed or cancelled, except in an emergency. Indeed, daily routines will become extremely difficult or even potentially impossible given the weather conditions.

Since we are entering the winter season, here are the most common alerts we can expect this winter if weather conditions warrant. These definitions are not perfect and their use depends on the situation, but they provide a general overview.

Winter Storm Watch: Usually issued when 6 inches or more of snowfall is possible based on the current forecast. This is used as an early warning to inform you of the potential for significant winter weather impacts. When the forecast becomes more certain, it will either be canceled or upgraded to a winter storm warning or a winter weather advisory.

Winter Storm Warning: Usually issued for 6 inches or more of snow. Overall, significant winter weather impacts are expected that will make driving dangerous or impossible. In some cases there may be less than 6 inches of snow if there is ice which will make things just as dangerous.

Winter Weather Advisory: Generally issued for anywhere between 2 and 6 inches of snow. If there is blowing snow or ice, an advisory may also be issued to account for inconvenient travel conditions, regardless of the amount of snow. This can be issued for any combination of winter precipitation that will cause impacts and make travel conditions inconvenient and slow.

Almanac of Mt. Pleasant for this week

The Information Almanac is a way to review normal temperatures and record high and low temperatures for that time of year. Normal temperatures are based on the average of 30-year highs and lows for that date between 1991 and 2020. For example, if you take the maximum temperature for each November 14 between 1991 and 2020 and calculate the average of the 30 values, the result would be 46. Therefore, the normal high for today is 46°. High and low temperature record data dates back to 1895. Sunrise and sunset data are also provided. All information is valid for Mount Pleasant.

November 14

  • Normal up/down: 46°/31°
  • Record record: 70° 1909
  • Low record: 13° 2019
  • Sunrise: 7:32 a.m.
  • Sunset: 5:15 p.m.

November 15

  • Normal up/down: 46°/31°
  • Record record: 68° 1953
  • Lowest record: 2° 1959
  • Sunrise: 7:33 a.m.
  • Sunset: 5:14 p.m.

November 16

  • Normal up/down: 45°/31°
  • Record record: 69° 1990
  • Lowest record: 2° 1933
  • Sunrise: 7:34 a.m.
  • Sunset: 5:13 p.m.

November 17

  • Normal up/down: 45°/30°
  • Record record: 69° 1953
  • Lowest record: 3° 1959
  • Sunrise: 7:36 a.m.
  • Sunset: 5:12 p.m.

November 18

  • Normal up/down: 45°/30°
  • Record record: 68° 1958
  • Lowest record: 11° 1924
  • Sunrise: 7:37 a.m.
  • Sunset: 5:11 p.m.

November 19

  • Normal up/down: 44°/30°
  • Record record: 70° 1941
  • Lowest record: 10° 1989
  • Sunrise: 7:38 a.m.
  • Sunset: 5:10 p.m.

November 20

  • Normal up/down: 44°/30°
  • Record record: 67° 1953
  • Lowest record: 13° 1951
  • Sunrise: 7:39 a.m.
  • Sunset: 5:09 p.m.

Mid-Mitten Weather View’s mission is to serve people by providing timely information to help you stay safe and make decisions based on the weather. We are passionate about educating our forecasters and subscribers on how weather forecasting works and how we can be better prepared when significant weather conditions threaten. Our team is made up of both former CMU graduate meteorologists and current student forecasters from the University. For daily updates, we invite you to check out our Facebook page! We look forward to seeing you here next week for another weekly 7-day forecast update.

-Weather forecast by CMU student forecasters Isaac Cleland and John Jones